>>Valley Patriot>>
|
The Big Picture in
the Fifth District
Richard Howe, Jr.
(08/03/07)
 A week after Ronald Reagan
defeated Jimmy Carter in the 1980 presidential election,
I left for a three-year tour of duty in West Germany as
an Army intelligence officer. A few weeks ago, I
made my first trip back for a family vacation during
which I was more interested in the Bavarian weather
forecast than the goings-on in the Fifth District
race. Returning home, I felt out of touch with the
day-to-day rhythm of the campaign, so for this article,
I’ll focus on the big picture in the rapidly
approaching Democratic primary.
 Ironically, losing
track of the race has made me a better observer of
it. During any campaign, candidates, staffers, the
media and political junkies become obsessed with the
latest poll, fund raising report, endorsement, anything,
as long as every second of every day is filled with
thoughts of the campaign. We assume that everyone else
does the same. They do not.
I believe that the average voter has not yet tuned into
this Congressional race and, given the absurd date on
which the primary will be held – the day after Labor
Day – it’s unlikely that the average voter will
ever tune in.
For most, Tuesday, September 4, 2007 will be about
getting your kids back to school and yourself back to
work after a long weekend and a longer summer. In a
low turnout race, the power of money is diminished.
The single biggest expense for any campaign is
advertising, particularly extremely expensive major
market television ads. Because so few will be
participating in this election, however, the
effectiveness of these commercials will be greatly
decreased, almost eliminated. The same goes for
print ads since no single newspaper (except this one)
dominates political coverage in the geographically
diverse Fifth District.
 So if
television commercials and newspaper ads aren’t
going to win this race, what will? Voter
identification and persuasion top the list. By
researching who has voted regularly in past elections, a
campaign can predict who will vote in this one.
Identifying this small pool of die-hard voters is the
easy part. The challenge is persuading them to vote
for you. This is also where endorsements might make
a difference.
An endorsement by an elected official or union by itself
means little.
But if that endorsement brings the endorser’s
campaign organization and list of supporters plus a
determined effort to turn out the voters on that list,
then it could  generate
a critical number of votes in this low turnout election.
Having an electoral base, a group of people who has voted
for you before and will readily vote for you again, will
also help. Eileen Donoghue, who has been repeatedly
re-elected to the Lowell City Council, probably has a
slight advantage here over her state representative
opponents (Eldridge, Finegold and Miceli) who represent
smaller districts and also over Niki Tsongas who has
never held elective office.
Of course, if you look at Tsongas’s campaign finance
reports or go to one of her events, you will see that
many Lowell residents, almost all of whom have been
Donoghue supporters in council races, are with
Tsongas.
 This cuts into
Donoghue’s base, as does the lingering animosity of
those who view Donoghue as the prime architect of last
year’s ouster of City Manager John Cox.
Signs, bumper stickers and blanket literature drops
won’t have much impact. Automated calls are a
nuisance. There are still a number of debates, but
all five Democrats have been so effective on stage that
the chances of one emerging due to a standout debate
performance is remote. Of course, these debates are
a wild card since a major gaffe by a candidate will bring
the type of unwanted attention that could alter the
outcome of the election.
At the end of my recent trip to Germany, the taxi driver
bringing us to the airport was chatty, so I asked him
about Angela Merkel, the first female chancellor of  Germany. He said that it
didn’t matter who was elected because the big
corporations control everything.
I suspect that many who live in the Fifth District share
that sentiment.
Whichever candidate does the best job of identifying
those residents who feel that way and then completely
ignoring them while focusing on the much smaller pool of
those who vote in every election will be the Democratic
nominee.
Richard P. Howe Jr. is the creator of
www.richardhowe.com,
a blog that provides commentary on politics in
Lowell. He also serves as Register of Deeds of the
Northern District of Middlesex County. You can
email him at lowelldeeds@comcast.net
*Send your questions comments to ValleyPatriot@aol.com
The August 2007 Edition
of the Valley Patriot
The Valley Patriot is a Monthly
Publication.
All Contents (C) 2007, Valley Patriot, Inc.
We publish 15,000 newspapers and distribute in Andover,
North Andover,
Methuen, Haverhill, Chelmsford, Georgetown, Groveland,
Boxford, Amesbury, Newburyport
Lawrence, Dracut, Tewksbury, Merrimack, Newburyport,
Westford, Acton, and Lowell.
Hampton & Salisbury Beach, (summers
only)
|
Valley Patriot Archive
Valley Patriot Story
ARCHIVES
Prior Lead
Stories
Prior
Valley Patriot Editorials
Prior Columns by ...
Tom Duggan
Dr. Chuck
Ormsby
Paula
Porten
Ralph
Wilbur
Hanna
Ted Tripp
Valley
Patriot of the Month
Griselsilva.com
Patrick
Blanchette
D.J.
Beauregard
Jim
Cassidy
D.J. Deeb
Marcos
Devers
Bob
Desmarais
Regina
Faticanti
Jim
Fiorentini
Bill Kelly
Wilfredo
Laboy
Peter
Larocque
Vilma Lora
Ed Maguire
Billy
Manzi
Paul
Murano
Mark
Palermo
Hartley
Pleshaw
Debbie
Quinn
Raise Em
Right
Dr. Peary
Kathleen
Corey Rahme
Barney
Reilly
Angel
Rivera
Jim Rurak
Grisel
Silva
Mike
Sullivan
Sandra
Stotsky
Mike
Sweeney
Ken Willette
Scott Wood
Jim
Xenakis
|